New Bern, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

569
FXUS62 KMHX 250755
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
355 AM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will remain offshore today. A cold front will
move through the region late tomorrow and tomorrow night
bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Behind this
front, cooler high pressure builds in through early next week.
By mid week, high pressure shifts offshore with another cold
front approaching by the end of the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 2 AM Fri...Mostly clear and calm conditions will continue
early this morning. Strong radiational cooling so far tonight
has led to saturated surface conditions with patchy fog across
inland ENC. Fog may become more dense before sunrise as the
boundary layer continues to cool, with visibilities between 1
and 3 miles likely.

A summer-like pattern is expected today with weak high pressure
offshore and moist onshore flow continuing. Weak convergence
along a remnant boundary will contribute to isolated shower
development along the coast this morning, but better chances of
rain and thunderstorms will develop later this afternoon along
the sea breeze (just inland of the coast). Chances for rain and
thunderstorms will spread inland to the coastal plain by late
this afternoon as the sea breeze advances inland. Highs will
generally be in the mid/upper 70s to low 80s across ENC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 2 AM Fri...Flow will increase tonight as the gradient
increases ahead of an approaching cold front. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms over the coastal plain late this evening will
persist in some fashion through the first half of tonight, with
additional widely scattered activity possible after midnight.
Along the Outer Banks, additional coastal convergence will
contribute to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity through
the night. Mild temperatures are expected overnight with breezy
and cloudy conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 0330 Friday...

Weekend...Yet another cold front is forecast to move through
the area late Sat resulting in the threat for more widespread
showers and storms. Highs warming into the low to mid 80s ahead
of the approaching front Saturday. Despite how juicy the
atmosphere is with PWATs of over 1.5" being higher than the 90th
percentile, the front will be far removed from upper level
support, which leads to a less than impressive QPF one the order
of quarter to half an inch for FROPA but some locally higher
amounts will be possible under heavier downpours. CAA Saturday
night behind the front will lead to MinTs in the mid 50s over
Nern zones, around 60 or warmer immediate coast. Sunday will
feature cooler and drier air as high pressure builds over the
area from the N, persisting into next week. Again NBM PoPs look
to high for Sunday. Could see a lingering early morning shower
maybe, but expecting all precip activity to be well offshore by
sunrise Sun. MaxTs in low to mid 70s Sun with clearing skies.

Next Week...Will continue a dry weather forecast
through mid next week though an isolated afternoon sea breeze
shower or storm can`t be completely ruled out. PoPs increase
again on Wednesday with the approach of another front to cross
the area later in the week, most likely Thursday at this time.
Ts warming ahead of the late week front, upper 70s Mon, low 80s
Tues, and upper 80s Wednesday.


&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Saturday Morning/...
As of 2 AM Fri...A mix of sub-VFR and VFR conditions are
anticipated early this morning as patchy dense fog develops
inland as well as some areas of MVFR level stratus.

Mostly clear and calm conditions will continue early this
morning, and with ample moisture in the low levels, patchy fog
has developed across Eastern NC. Fog is expected to spread over
the next few hours, first across the Onslow and Duplin counties,
and then northward to the rest of the coastal plain.
Visibilities should mostly remain between 3-5 miles, however
some periods of IFR visibilities are possible. Additionally,
isolated areas of MVFR level stratus have developed, and low
clouds are also expected to spread across portions of the
coastal plain through sunrise.

Fog and low stratus should dissipate quickly this morning once
the sun rises and heating commences, and VFR conditions will
then continue through the rest of the day and into this evening.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
may cause some brief sub-VFR conditions across ENC.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Monday/...
As of 0345 Friday...

KEY MESSAGES

 - TSRA and sub-VFR risk persists through Saturday

A strong front will cross the region late Sat with more
widespread showers and thunderstorms and a better chance for a
period of sub VFR conditions. High pressure builds in behind the
front Sunday persisting through the middle of next week.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 2 AM Fri...Good boating conditions will persist today and
tonight with high pressure offshore. Winds will be 5-10 kts
this morning out of the NE/E. By this afternoon winds will veer
to the south and increase to 5-15 kts. Winds then become SW
15-20 kts tonight as the gradient increases ahead of an
approaching cold front. Seas will be mostly 2-4 ft.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Monday/...
As of 0400 Friday...

KEY MESSAGES

 - Small Craft conditions possible Saturday night and Sunday

Saturday, ahead of the next cold front, winds become S to SW
10-15 kt then shift to NW to N 15 to 20 gusting to 25 kt Sat
night. The front will cross area waters from N to S after sunset
Saturday night. Sunday, post frontal Nerly surge works down the
coast through Sunday morning as high pressure builds back in
behind the cold front, expecting winds 15-20G25kt. Prefrontal
wind forecast has increased showing potential for prefrontal SCA
conditions as well. However, the prefrontal winds are more
marginal for SCA, so have opted not to issue headlines for this
event just yet. Seas 3-5ft Saturday with 6ft building over outer
waters as Nerly surge hits Sunday. Seas subside to 2-4ft
through the day Monday to reach 2-3ft Tuesday. Boating
conditions deteriorate again Wed ahead of the next front.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...SGK/CEB
MARINE...SGK/CEB